Maharashtra Election: What Are Exit Polls, and How Accurate Were Predictions in 2019?

Exit polls are post-voting surveys conducted to predict election outcomes based on a sample of voter feedback. In Maharashtra, where elections often hinge on urban and rural dynamics, exit polls are closely watched for hints about the electorate’s mood. The 2024 polls are no different, with voters, parties, and analysts awaiting predictions with bated breath.

In 2019, exit polls for Maharashtra offered mixed accuracy. While most predicted a BJP-Shiv Sena victory, they underestimated the post-election political realignment that saw the Shiv Sena ally with the NCP and Congress to form a government. This unpredictability highlights the limitations of exit polls, which, despite sophisticated methodologies, cannot account for political shifts or backroom negotiations.

For 2024, experts recommend viewing exit polls with cautious optimism. They provide valuable insights but are not definitive forecasts, as the actual results depend on a variety of factors, including voter turnout and counting-day dynamics​

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